The AiR Curve · Research review overdue

The gap between using AI and creating value with it.

The AiR Curve plots adoption, production use and measured value over time, marked with model releases and research findings. It is a simple way to watch the gap everyone is talking about.

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Using AI somewhereProduction use casesMeasured value% of organisations · Sourced from the Evidence Register · Updated monthly

01

Adoption

The share of organisations using AI in at least one function. This line is rising faster than almost any technology in history.

02

Production

The share of organisations that have redesigned a workflow end to end around AI. It lags behind adoption, and is where value begins to appear.

03

Measured value

The share showing measurable impact against a baseline. It lags furthest behind, and is the line that tells you whether AI is paying off.

Adoption is high. Value is low… for now

88%

of organisations now use AI in at least one function. Adoption is no longer a differentiator. It is simply the new baseline.

McKinsey, The State of AI 2025

21%

have redesigned even one workflow end to end around AI. This is the current ceiling for production use, and the point where value starts to become visible.

McKinsey, The State of AI 2025

5%

of enterprise AI pilots delivered measurable profit-and-loss impact. The measured-value line is the one that matters most.

MIT NANDA, The GenAI Divide 2025 · 300 deployments analysed

What comes next

Sector-level readiness and value, once the sample is large enough.

Once we have at least 25 responses in a sector, we will add a new line to this chart: readiness and real value for the UK mid-market, broken down by sector, over time. We publish every change to the assessment here, with the evidence behind it, so you can see what changed and why.

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